You're #1 on Google. Do you still need Google Ads?

A client asked us this last month, and it’s the best question they’d asked all year: “We finally hit #1 for our main keyword. Can we kill the ads?”

Most agencies have one answer to that question, and it’s the answer that keeps the retainer alive. Ours is: maybe. Sometimes the honest move is to turn the ads off. The trick is knowing which situation you’re actually in — and there’s real research on both sides.

The number Google likes to quote

In 2011, Google published a study called Incremental Clicks Impact of Search Advertising. They ran over 400 “ad pause” experiments — switch off the ads, watch what happens to organic clicks — and found that on average, 89% of paid clicks were incremental. Turn off the ads, and those clicks mostly don’t reappear through your organic listing. They just vanish.

That’s a strong number. It’s also Google’s number, about Google’s product, and it’s been quoted in every ads pitch deck since.

The number that complicates it

Now the other side. Researchers Tom Blake, Chris Nosko and Steven Tadelis ran a large-scale field experiment at eBay and published it in Econometrica: Consumer Heterogeneity and Paid Search Effectiveness. They shut off eBay’s paid search across entire regions and measured what happened.

Their finding on brand keywords: no measurable short-term benefit. People searching “eBay” were going to eBay regardless. The ads were buying clicks eBay already owned.

So which study is right? Both. They measured different searches — and that distinction is the whole answer to your question.

Brand searches vs. everything else

This is the line that matters:

• Someone searching your name has already decided. They’re looking for the door, not shopping. If you rank #1 for your own brand, an ad above that listing is often just paying for a click you’d have gotten free.
• Someone searching your category — “emergency plumber near me,” “web design Granada” — hasn’t decided anything. They’re scanning. You’re one of eight options. Here, the ad is buying attention you genuinely don’t have yet.

eBay’s experiment was mostly the first kind. Google’s 400 studies were mostly the second. Neither is lying.

When you can genuinely turn the ads off

We’ll say it out loud, because most agencies won’t:

• You rank #1 for your brand, nobody is bidding on your name, and your ads are mostly brand keywords. You’re buying your own traffic back.
• You’re in a low-competition niche where the #1 organic result is genuinely the first thing on the screen.
• Your margins are thin, organic already covers your capacity, and you’re booked out. More leads you can’t service isn’t growth — it’s just spend.

If that’s you, we’d rather move the budget into SEO or fixing the site than keep a campaign alive for appearances.

When #1 organic still isn’t enough

And the other half of the honesty:

• The SERP isn’t what you picture. “#1 organic” often means below four ads, a map pack, and an AI Overview. You can rank first and still be halfway down the screen — which is exactly why zero-click search works as a filter rather than a death sentence.
• Competitors bid on your brand name. If they do, your #1 organic listing sits under their ad. Defensive brand bidding is cheap — your quality score on your own name is excellent — and it’s one of the few places brand ads clearly earn their keep.
• Urgency verticals. Burst pipe at 2am. Nobody scrolls. Top of page wins, and organic rank is irrelevant to someone who’s already dialing.
• New services or new cities where you don’t rank yet. Ads work in days; SEO works in months. Use ads to buy time while the organic side compounds.
• Testing before you commit. A month of ad data tells you which keywords actually convert before you spend a quarter writing content for them.

FAQ

Should I bid on my own brand name? Only if someone else is, or if your SERP pushes your listing down. Check by searching your name in an incognito window. If your listing is genuinely first and clean — skip it. If a competitor’s ad is sitting on top of you, defend it.

Will pausing my ads hurt my organic rankings? No. This is the most persistent myth in the industry. Paid and organic are separate systems; buying ads doesn’t lift your rankings and pausing them doesn’t drop them. What changes is your total traffic — which is exactly what you’re testing.

How do I know if my ads are incremental for me? Run your own pause study. Turn off a campaign for two weeks and watch total conversions, not ad conversions. If total leads barely move, those ads were buying traffic you already had. If the phone goes quiet, you have your answer. That’s the same method Google used — you can just do it on your own account.

The bottom line

“Should I run ads if I rank #1?” is really “are these clicks incremental?” — and that’s not a philosophy question, it’s a measurable one. Google says 89%. eBay found ~0% on brand. Your number is somewhere in between, and it depends entirely on what people type before they find you.

Want us to figure out which one you are? We’ll run the numbers, and if the honest answer is “put this budget into your organic instead,” we’ll tell you that. See our Google Ads service — or if you suspect the clicks are landing badly rather than being wasted, start with why your ads aren’t the expensive part. Either way, tell us what you’re seeing.